THE FUTURE AIN'T WHAT IT USED TO BE

So the Internet hasn’t revolutionized the way we buy groceries. Things almost never turn out the way we expect them to because there is no grand design to the way history goes. Change almost always comes as a surprise because things don’t happen in straight lines and they aren’t bound by any “time laws” either. They happen when they happen.

That’s what makes predicting the future so hard. We can extrapolate based on things happening to us now and in recent past, but we don’t know what curve balls will be thrown changing the predictable path. I have watched the trade show world with some amusement over the last few years, because of the way our leaders and experts look ahead. While the economy was hot and dotcoms were reinventing the world, our industry shifted into overdrive. Trade shows and conventions enjoyed record growth in net square footage and many events were sold to deep-pocketed organizations at astounding multiples.

Industry insiders looked at what was happening and extrapolated that our world was going to continue to explode! The future looked bright in all reports. At the same time, some people (notably the dotcommers) predicted the demise of the trade show, as we know it. But history has shown a strong predilection of ignoring predicted futures.

As far as I can tell, the first recorded “expositions” were held in the Champagne region of France in 1114 in the cities of Troyes, Provins, Lagny and Bar-sur-Aube, featuring commodities like grain, wool, flax, and wine. Merchants from long distances came to these fairs to sell wares they had in abundance to communities where there was a deficit.

I’m sure we could go even further back to the street bazaars of ancient Mesopotamia, if we wanted. But the European markets – known as the Champagne Fairs, appear to be the first real organized exchanges.

That means our industry is close to 900 years old! I think I’m safe in assuming that during that time, we’ve seen good times and we’ve seen bad times. If we were to track progress in the exposition world, it most likely would look like a random uphill walk. Some peaks; some valleys. And I would suspect that during all those up and down times, people were predicting expositions would grow and expositions would fall.

Like I said, predicting the future is tough, and understanding that, I will venture my own thoughts about the future of our industry:

The Power of Involvement

While most people are espousing the power of Face-to-Face as the big reason for being at an event, I personally think the involvement power of any medium is more important to exhibitors and attendees. This, of course, includes F2F, but goes far beyond. Involvement includes how exhibitors involve attendees in their exhibits, how they allow attendees to touch, use, and test their products. It includes how show sponsors involve both exhibitors and attendees in the actual planning process for future events – to the point of passing on critical decision-making power. The International Manufacturing Technology Show, for example, already gives the selection of their general contractor to their Exhibitor Advisory Committee.

The Time/Value Dilemma Increases

The average adult in the US today works one full day a week more than his or her parents did. According to a Lou Harris survey, the amount of leisure time enjoyed by the average American has shrunk 37 percent since 1973. Harris therefore concluded that "time may have become the most precious commodity in the land." Any argument with that?

Anything that takes time out of our day is getting higher scrutiny. Trade shows take a LOT of time. Therefore it will become even more important for any trade show to PROVE extremely high value for the time investment by exhibitors and attendees.

The Power of Community

Golfers hang out with golfers. Musicians hang out with musicians. Harley-Davidson owners hang out with other owners. People like to hang out with people like them.

IMHO, trade shows will morph into annual industry “watering holes,” where people will get the opportunity to hang out with others in their chosen field. This will be the chance for learning, sharing, renewal, and even fellowship, because this will be where you know you can meet and see those other people who go through the same daily grind and have the same problem set you do.

The Blending of TS and the Internet

Trade shows offer F2F, interactive, competitive comparison opportunities in a short time frame. The Internet offers interactive, competitive comparison opportunities, too. It is 24/7, but it’s not F2F. In other words, the strength of both offset the weakness of both. It only makes sense that someone will figure out how to marry these two powerful mediums together to create an enormously powerful communication vehicle. 

Ultimately, the future of any and all events lies with the bottom-line value generated by and for all stakeholders. Such value will be defined by the quality, intensity, and quantity of the experiences that link companies, products, and brands with customers and prospects.

©2004 Steve Miller